BusinessHABTactical arbitrage academy: Is there any way you could write a piece on how to use tactical arbitrage(TA) in the most effective way? I’ve watched tons of YouTube videos and a few blogs here and there, but such because it’s such a customizable application I can never find a basic 1010 on TA. Would help a lot.
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Tactical arbitrage academy
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I once taught Principles of War to sleepy plebes at the US Military Academy at West Point. Among those principles was one called “Offensive,” the explication of which begins with “Seize, maintain, and exploit the intitiative.” This applies to all forms of tactical contest, even those that do not lean into violence. Think of it as an aspect of game theory. What exactly is the initiative?
Tactical arbitrage academy
A little game:
A person, the “pitcher,” holds a dollar bill by one end, suspended halfway between the slightly open but waiting thumb and forefinger of another person, the “catcher.” The rule is that when the pitcher drops the bill, the catcher catches the falling banknote between her fingers. But she has to wait for the pitcher to actually drop it.
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Spoiler:
The game almost always goes to the pitcher, because that millisecond of catcher reaction time required to respond to the pitcher’s initiative means the catcher is already disadvantaged. Try it. It’s kind of fun. Any time your own decision to act is only in response to the actions of an opponent, that opponent “has the initiative.”
Tactical arbitrage academy
This explains a great deal about why the Trump klavern is so slippery. They dominate the news cycle every day, or he does by tweeting and saying outrageous things designed to get the goat of everyone opposed to Trump. News (even the infotainment variety we call “journalism” in the US) never has the initiative.
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They are always the catchers, and Trump always has another dollar bill to start the game again. The media stays in a game that is already fixed, and so we get the daily cycle . . . outrageous tweet or statement, everyone reports like crazy, getting themselves and their followers wound up like two-dollar watches, the Trump opposition goes a little crazy trying to “debate” these assholes, to the delight of the Trump cult, which is aimed mainly at provoking exactly this reaction for their own amusement while the government continues its vandalism unremarked.
Tactical arbitrage academy
John Boyd, a military theorist, mastered the seizure of the initiative to such a point that he defeated every comer during air combat simulations for years, earning the nickname “Forty Second John,” because he shot down his opponents in less than forty seconds. One of the first maneuvers he often used on clear days was flying between his opponent and the sun, and during that brief adjustment to blinding light, he would perform two or three fast maneuvers in tandem, then line up on his opponent. With each move, his opponent lost some of the initiative. Blinding light, adjust, where is he? There he is . . . wait, what did he just do? Oh wait! Now what is he doing? Oops!
Tactical arbitrage academy
Boyd developed a primitive model for this decision cycle that defied planning and made an ally of confusion —for tactical agility, in other words — that had four steps performed within a flash. Observe, orient, decide, act . . . or, the OODA feedback loop.
Tactical agility is predicated upon the seizure of the initiative by (1) doing the unexpected, (2) watching the reaction, and (3) looking for the refreshed vulnerabilities. Force the opponent to react to your decisions. This is the measuring stick of initiative. Who is reacting to whose decisions? The second “who” controls the narrative, so to speak. If you are reacting to the decisions of another, that other has the initiative.
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There is a rub.
There’s always a rub. In this case, the rub is that without sufficient understanding of the psychology of an opponent, the second step in the Boyd loop — orientation — becomes problematic.
Then there is the action step. This is where people scratch their heads and say, “What action exactly can be taken?” And this is what requires trial, error, and practice.
Boyd defeated his airborne contestants because he had a lot of well-practiced maneuvers, or techniques, in his bag of tricks, the way a fencer, a basketball coach, or a tennis player does. The technique is the building block of the tactic. The tactic is the building block of the win . . . or loss, if the tactics are inappropriate to the situation.
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